What happened
In Kazakhstan, the draft republican budget for 2027 is being discussed, and along with it, the topic of the forecast exchange rate of the dollar has returned to the focus of business attention. Any budget is built on macroeconomic assumptions: the average annual price of oil, the rate of economic growth, inflation, and the exchange rate of the tenge against the dollar. It is these parameters that determine how much revenue the treasury will receive from exports and taxes and what the expenditure items tied to the currency will be.
It is important to understand: the exchange rate laid down in the budget is not a forecast of "how much the dollar will cost at the exchange office," but a calculated figure for planning the state's revenues and expenditures. It is deliberately taken conservatively so that the budget remains stable even in an unfavorable scenario in the currency market.
At the same time, monetary policy is also being eased. Following the results of the September forecast round, the National Bank lowered the base rate to 16.25% per annum with a corridor of ±1 percentage point — this is already the third consecutive decrease. The decision was based on the slowdown in inflation: the annual figure has dropped to about 9.8%. The rate and inflation are key benchmarks that are directly related to the behavior of the tenge exchange rate.
Who is affected
The forecast exchange rate from the budget and the decisions of the National Bank are important for a wide range of participants:
- Importers and exporters — currency revenue and the cost of purchases are recalculated at the actual exchange rate, and it is more convenient for companies to plan budgets with reference to official benchmarks. - Companies with currency loans and contracts — exchange rate fluctuations change the amount of payments in tenge. - Accountants and financiers — they need to correctly reflect exchange rate differences, revaluation of currency assets and liabilities. - Investors and entrepreneurs who assess the profitability of projects and the cost of borrowing, as the base rate sets the price of money in the economy.
For ordinary citizens, the forecast exchange rate is an indirect signal about the government's expectations regarding the stability of the tenge over the next year.
How to read the exchange rate laid down in the budget
The budget exchange rate is a planned figure, not a market quotation. It serves several functions:
1. Basis for calculating revenues. A significant portion of revenues is related to the export of raw materials denominated in dollars. The more cautiously (i.e., weaker for the tenge) the exchange rate is laid down, the lower the risk that actual revenues will be below the plan. 2. Benchmark for expenditures. Some government obligations and purchases are tied to the currency, so the exchange rate also affects the expenditure side. 3. Indicator of expectations. The laid-down corridor can indicate what scenario regarding external conditions the government considers basic.
Therefore, the actual market exchange rate during the year almost always differs from the budgetary one — and this is normal. The task of business is not to "guess the number from the budget," but to build its own model of currency risks.
For reference on real dynamics: in mid-September 2026, the dollar on the KASE trading platform decreased, and as of September 16, it fell to about 444.88 tenge. The market during these weeks moved in different directions — there were days of both significant strengthening of the tenge and corrections back.
What businesses should do
Practical steps that should be worked out without waiting for the final budget figures:
- Lay down several exchange rate scenarios in the financial model — basic, conservative, and stress. This way, you will see the sensitivity of profits to the currency, rather than depend on a single figure. - Review currency clauses in contracts. For import contracts, clarify how the exchange rate is fixed and who bears the currency risk. - Assess the cost of borrowing considering the base rate of 16.25%. The decrease in the rate gradually makes tenge loans cheaper — perhaps part of the currency financing is more advantageous to replace with tenge financing. - Set up accounting for exchange rate differences. Ensure that your accounting system (including 1C solutions) correctly conducts the revaluation of currency assets and liabilities on reporting dates. - Monitor the official exchange rate of the National Bank — it is used for tax and accounting purposes, while the KASE exchange rate reflects the market situation within the day.
Timelines and what to look for next
The budget draft is undergoing a discussion stage, so the laid-down parameters may still be refined before final approval. Focus on the following control points:
- Official exchange rates of the National Bank — updated daily and applied for accounting and taxes. - Results of trading on KASE — published at the end of the session and show market dynamics. - Decisions on the base rate — made according to the National Bank's schedule; the next decision will set the tone for the cost of money and indirectly affect the exchange rate. - Final text of the budget law for 2027 — it will contain the approved macroeconomic indicators.
A reasonable tactic is not to tie the entire financial model to a single value, but to regularly compare the plan with the fact and update scenarios as official data is released.
Frequently asked questions
Is the exchange rate of the dollar laid down in the budget a forecast for exchange offices? — No. It is a calculated figure for planning the state's revenues and expenditures; the actual exchange rate at exchange points and on the stock exchange is formed by the market and usually differs.
What exchange rate should be used in accounting and tax reporting? — For accounting and tax purposes, the official rate set by the National Bank is used, not the KASE exchange rate.
Why is the decrease in the base rate important for the exchange rate? — The base rate affects the cost of tenge money and the attractiveness of tenge assets. Its decrease against the backdrop of slowing inflation is a signal of stabilization, but many external factors also influence the exchange rate.
What was the base rate after the September decision? — The National Bank set it at 16.25% per annum with a corridor of ±1 percentage point; this is the third consecutive decrease against the backdrop of inflation slowing to about 9.8%.
How to protect against exchange rate fluctuations? — Use scenario planning, currency clauses in contracts, assess the replacement of currency loans with tenge ones, and correctly conduct the revaluation of currency items in accounting.
Sources
- What dollar exchange rate was laid down in the draft budget for 2027 (09.17.2026) — Paragraph (prg.kz) - On the reduction of the base rate to 16.25% following the forecast round — Paragraph (prg.kz) - The National Bank announced a new level of the base rate — Uchet.kz - The National Bank has reduced the base rate for the third consecutive time — Search for fresh publications - The dollar exchange rate fell by almost 3 tenge on the stock exchange on September 16 — Search for fresh publications - Results of foreign currency trading on KASE (09.16.2026) — Paragraph (prg.kz) - Currency rates on September 17, 2026 — MyBuh.kz - What will happen to the tenge exchange rate until the end of 2026: a financier's forecast — Search for fresh publications - The National Bank held a meeting with experts following the decision on the base rate — official message from the National Bank